The Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) is the biggest live music event in the world, with a reach of more than 160 million viewers worldwide. Whether you love or hate the competition, there is no way around it. Every year, the ending remains uncertain until the very last second: Which of the 37 participating countries will take home the victory?

Who wins will not only be decided by the jury points. The audience vote also plays a significant role. This year, we want to know: Can we predict the winner based on their social media presence? Is it possible to tell in advance whose fans have the most potential to call in and vote for their star?

If we look at the betting odds for the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, participants Baby Lasagna from Croatia and Nemo from Switzerland currently have the highest chances of winning. The betting portals also see Angelina Mango (Italy), alyona alyona & Jerry Heil (Ukraine), Joost Klein (Netherlands), Slimane (France), Eden Golan (Israel), Marina Satti (Greece), Bambie Thug (Ireland) and Gåte (Norway) among the top 10. In this article, we will examine how the participants are doing on social media.

The Eurovision Song Contest 2024 on Social Media

Who Has the Biggest Following?

Based on the number of followers alone, the ranking is led by five successful European musicians: The Norwegian twins Marcus & Martinus, who are competing for the host country Sweden, the British singer and actor Olly Alexander, the Italian pop singer Angelina Mango and the French contestant Slimane. All participants can look back on a solid career, have already won several awards in their home countries, and will all compete against each other in the final of the Eurovision Song Contest on Saturday, May 11, 2024. It is therefore highly unlikely that winners can be determined based on follower numbers alone.

Which Contestants Have the Biggest Follower Growth?

However, if you look at the growth of the individual candidates on social networks, a different picture emerges. So we determined the top 10 ESC contestants based on their most recent follower growth on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube.

The level of follower growth in the recent past can provide an initial indication of who could win the Eurovision Song Contest. Joost Klein from the Netherlands, Israeli Eden Golan, Marina Satti from Greece, French Slimane and Italian Angelina Mango are particularly successful on social media, with a respective follower growth of more than 20,000 on Instagram, TikTok and YouTube combined. 

Following in 6th to 10th place are Nemo (Switzerland), Luna (Poland), Baby Lasagna (Croatia), Ladaniva (Armenia), and Silia Kapsis (Cyprus), each with a follower growth of more than 10,000 followers.

Who Can Activate Their Fans on Social Media Before the Song Contest?

To be able to make an even better prediction, we looked at which of the above-mentioned participants has the highest engagement rate on social channels. 

Nemo, Silia Kapsis, Marina Satti, and Eden Golan especially stand out in this comparison, each achieving an average engagement rate of 17% or more on their posts. But what do these figures mean for their chances of winning?

Plotting the follower growth against the interaction rate in a diagram, you can guess who could win the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 title.

Who Will Win the ESC 2024: Marina Satti or Eden Golan?

If you take their recent social media performance as a guide to who will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, the two candidates Eden Golan and Marina Satti currently have the highest chances of emerging as the winner of the ESC. Not only have the two singers gained an above-average number of followers in the recent weeks, they can also motivate their fans to like, comment and share their content on social media. This leads to the conclusion that the musicians from Israel and Greece both have a high chance of doing better than average in the ESC’s audience voting.

The Most Successful Content Formats

As a bonus to our prediction, we have analyzed which content formats the ESC participants use most frequently and which of these formats receive the highest number of reactions on social media.

Videos are by far the most frequently shared content type on social media. In the last two weeks, the ESC participants posted 325 TikToks, 179 Instagram Reels, 65 YouTube Shorts, and 28 YouTube videos. So, videos are the most popular among the Eurovision Song Contest candidates, but is it also the most successful content format?

While carousel posts are sometimes superior to video formats in other industries and target groups, we can see a clear trend here as videos perform best on all platforms when it comes to achieving the highest number of likes, comments and shares. TikTok videos are particularly well received with an interaction rate of 24%, while Instagram Reels have an average interaction rate of 9%. 

As expected, TikTok emerges as the engagement winner from our direct comparison. The average engagement rate on TikTok posts is better than on YouTube and Instagram. The much-hyped YouTube Shorts perform the worst of all content formats among the ESC participants. With an engagement rate of 5%, they generate fewer interactions than longer YouTube videos or Instagram carousels (8% each).

Who Will Win the ESC 2024?

Will Eden Golan or Marina Satti win the Eurovision Song Contest? If their performance on social media is anything to go by, the two singers have high hopes of winning the title. But chances are also excellent for other participants such as Nemo, Joost Klein and Silia Kapsis. We will stay tuned!

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